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Roles and Missions vs Threat
Capabilities
On the strength of public statements by Defence it would
appear that
the SEA 4000 warships are primarily intended to provide long range air
defence cover for amphibious operations in the region, air defence
escort cover for amphibious vessels or convoys, and blue water
capabilities as lead vessels for SAGs. The role optimisations of the
three shortlisted warships fit this classical role definition
reasonably well.
More curious is the case put publicly for the use of these
warships as anti-ballistic missile defence platforms, ostensibly to
defend amphibious landing sites from tactical or intermediate range
ballistic missiles. Indeed some media commentators have suggested these
warships might be used for a broader national missile defence role,
something even the most ambitious overseas proponents of ballistic
missile defence would dare not suggest.
The principal threat to surface shipping and amphibious
landings within this region will be anti-shipping and land attack
cruise missiles, of Russian, cloned Russian or indigenous origin. Such
weapons are now well established in regional inventories, with highly
ambitious shopping plans by a number of regional operators. These
weapons can be launched by coastal batteries from mobile trailers, by
surface warships, submarines and a wide range of aircraft. The sheer
diversity of these weapons is an issue in its own right. In statistical
terms regional cruise missile inventories already outnumber
conventional theatre ballistic missile capabilities, and this trend
will continue over time. Cruise missiles are more accurate, cheaper per
range/payload, and harder to detect in flight.
At the top end of the threat scale are large Russian
supersonic
ramjet cruise missiles, such as the sea skimming Raduga Kh-41 Moskit
(SS-N-22 Sunburn) Mach 2.2 135 NMI class ASCM, and the Kh-61
Yakhont/PJ-10 Brahmos A/S (SS-N-26) Mach 2.5 160 NMI class ASCM.
Designed to inflict serious damage to aircraft carriers or large
transports, these supersonic sea skimmers can cut smaller warships in
half. China has deployed the Sunburn on its Sovremenyy destroyers,
while India intends to launch licence built Brahmos missiles from
surface warships, coastal batteries and aircraft.
An arguably no less lethal arrival in the region is the
Novator 3M54
Alfa/Club/Kalibr family of ASCMs, now available as torpedo tube launch
rounds for the Kilo class SSKs. The sea-skimming subsonic 3M-54E1 Alfa
(SS-N-27) subsonic 160 NMI class ASCM most closely resembles the now
retired BGM-109 TASM anti-ship Tomahawk variant. Its sibling, the 120
NMI class 3M-54E is a more lethal variant, which carries a rocket
propelled Mach 2.9 class manoeuvring sea skimming payload section. When
the 3M-54E seeker acquires its target, the aft section of the missile
is jettisoned, the rocket motor ignited and the victim warship has to
deal with a sea skimming Mach 3 class weapon. India has acquired the
3M-54 series, and reports now claim a tit for tat buy by China. An air
launch 3M-54E variant has been marketed on the Su-32FN/34 fighter,
while the Yakhont and Moskit have been integrated on the Su-27/30
Flanker series.
If India proceeds with its intended lease of the Tu-22M3
Backfire C, we are also apt to see the arrival of the massive 200 NMI
class Raduga Kh-22M Burya (AS-4 Kitchen), capable of Mach 4 class
speeds at altitude. Designed with its smaller sibling, the KSR-5
(AS-6), to kill aircraft carriers, the Kh-22 was the impetus for the
development of AEGIS during the 1970s.
One tier down from these weapons are shorter ranging ASCMs.
The
Mach 4 class ramjet Zvezda-Strela Kh-31 (AS-17 Krypton) family of
weapons has been acquired by China for its Su-30 fleet, it is available
in 60 NMI and extended range 110 NMI variants with antishipping radar
and passive anti-radiation seekers. China is also to deploy the 50 NMI
class subsonic Kh-59MK2 Ovod, a antishipping radar seeker equipped
derivative of the AS-18 Kazoo. India operates the 70 NMI class Kh-35U
Uran/Kharpunski (AS-20 Kayak) - a Russian Harpoon - with reports
claiming China has ordered the same.
China has manufactured since the 1970s a wide range of
derivatives of the Russian liquid rocket propelled Styx missile,
usually labelled the Silkworm family of missiles. While subsonic,
these large 2 to 3 tonne weapons are available in ship, coastal battery
and air launch versions, including a turbojet powered model and a range
of seeker variants are available. China also builds an indigenous
analogue to the Exocet/Harpoon in its YJ-8 family of sea skimming
missiles, available with rocket and turbojet propulsion.
While all of these weapons are available with anti-shipping
seekers, some are also available in land attack variants, or dual role
variants. Evidence is now also emerging of a Chinese program to field
sub/ship and air launched land attack cruise missiles in the class of
the 600 NMI range US Tomahawk and CALCM. Reports indicate a Tomahawk
clone, and Kh-55/65 (AS-15 Kent) derivative will enter service by the
end of the decade. China is now testing a new Badger variant, the H-6H,
equipped to carry four such cruise missiles.
This is highly lethal mix of weapons, likely to be encountered
in blue water operations, and littoral operations including the support
of amphibious landings.
The key and perhaps most important common feature of most of
these weapons is that they have sea skimming or low altitude cruise
profiles, and range performance in excess of 40 NMI. With most of these
weapons being of Russian origin, it is inevitable that the Russian
doctrine of massed saturation attack will be adopted as part of the
training package provided. Developed during the Cold War to defeat US
Navy battle groups, this doctrine aims to place as large as possible a
number of missiles onto the target warships in as narrow a time window
as possible to saturate the ships' defences.
From an air defence perspective this is as ugly an environment
as possible. Because most of the these weapons are sea skimmers with
more than 25 NMI range, they can be launched without warning from well
below the radar horizon of an air defence warship. The long range
detection capability of such warships is nearly irrelevant here, since
the launching aircraft can be flown in under the mainlobes of the radar
to the missile release point. The tactics long used by the RAAF with
its F-111C/Harpoon combination are simply replicated using Russian
weapons.
A warship is thus likely to get its first warning as the
missiles pop up over the radar horizon, 15 to 25 NMI distant, depending
on radar antenna elevation. With around 2 to 3 minutes warning time for
subsonic missiles, and as little as 40 seconds for supersonic missiles,
the warship must be capable of tracking these ASCMs, launching its
SAMs, providing terminal phase illumination, assessing the kill, and
repeating with a second shot if need be, before the ASCMs get inside
the minimal engagement distance of the weapon system. If the ASCMs get
past the point defence SAMs, then the last line of defence is the
terminal gun system or short range SAM, which even if effective may not
prevent the ship from being showered with debris.

In a cruise missile rich threat
environment, all surface
warships are confronted with the physics of radar propagation which
hide inbound low flying missiles below the radar horizon. For wide area
air defence operations, AEW&C aircraft are a much more productive
means of surveilling airspace (Author).
The RIM-162 ESSM was designed for this style of engagement.
However,
the issue is as much one of missile dynamics as it is of having an
X-band tracking and illuminating system capable of concurrently
tracking and illuminating for multiple defensive SAMs. On average up to
two SAMs must be launched to guarantee the kill of an incoming ASCM, if
a half a dozen ASCMs are inbound, then there is a real risk that the
ship's illuminators will be saturated and an ASCM will get through.
While a single missile may not sink a warship, it could inflict enough
damage to render it vulnerable to subsequent attacks.
The game for a warship is thus one of being able to exceed the
rate of fire in missiles thrown against it, in the narrow time and
space window afforded by the radar horizon. Having a 250 NMI range 3D
radar and 100 NMI range two stage SAMs may be almost irrelevant. Only
an opponent devoid of modern anti-shipping missiles would even consider
an conventional air attack from medium altitudes, using dumb and smart
bombs or rockets. Such opponents will be a scarce commodity in this
region.
Basic Technology Issues
The high availability of modern ASCMs, especially
supersonic weapons, has seen the evolution of a new generation of
defensive technologies for warships. The first of these are X-band
phased array radars (Active Electronically Steered Arrays or AESAs),
the second is low observable faceted hull shaping rules to reduce the
warship's radar signature.
At this time two X-band AESA radar systems are in production
or
development for this application, these are the Raytheon AN/SPY-3
Multi-Function Radar (MFR) planned for the US Navy DD(X), CG(X),
retrofits on CVN-77, CVNX aircraft carriers and possibly LHD-8, LPD-12
and LPD-17 amphibious ships, and the Thales Active Phased Array Radar
(APAR) on the F124 class. The planned NATO Self-Defense ESSM Active
Phased Array Radar (SEAPAR) is intended to combine aspects of the SPY-3
and APAR, and is a joint project between Raytheon Naval & Maritime
Integrated Systems (N&MIS) and Thales Naval Nederland (TNNL) under
the sponsoship of the NATO SeaSparrow Surface Missile System Project
Office. The basic technology in these X-band arrays compares closely to
the APG-77 and APG-81 radars on the F/A-22A and JSF fighters
respectively.
These radars are designed to stop saturation ASCM attacks -
the
specific buzzword being raid density as a measure of how many inbound
ASCMs can be engaged. This class of radar will track the incoming
missiles, provide midcourse guidance for outbound SAMs, and terminal
illumination to SAM impact. As they are electronically steered, a
single AESA panel can be timeshared in milliseconds between multiple
inbound missiles and outbound SAMs. With potentially large panel
apertures, this class of radar will match or exceed the detection
performance of top tier fighter radars like the APG-77 - which can
detect a 1 m2 target at more than 100 NMI. Operating in the X-band,
such radars can provide highly accurate angle tracking, and can be very
effective at detecting skin returns from small surface features on
small targets. It is no accident that specialised ballistic missile
defence radars like the Raytheon THAAD radar, the Israeli Green Pine,
the Russian 9S19 Imbir (High Screen) and the Raytheon X-Band Radar
(XBR) for the NMD system are all X-band designs.
Active array technology offers other important benefits. One
is
graceful degradation with individual module failures, unlike passive
arrays like the SPY-1 generation which are vulnerable to single point
failures in the main transmitter tube. Another is much lower sidelobe
emissions resulting from the ability to apply better taper functions
through module gain and phase control - in effect such radars are much
stealthier than passive phase control only arrays like the SPY-1
generation.
Conventional wisdom in radar engineering favours the lower
VHF/UHF and L-bands for long range search radars, and the X-band for
shorter ranging tracking and engagement radars. The S-band used in the
SPY-1 is a compromise, to improve performance in tracking smaller
targets and to avoid the additional array size incurred with longer
wavelengths. The Volume Search Radar (VSR) intended to complement the
SPY-3 on the DD(X)/CG(X) was originally defined as an L-band radar and
recently shifted to the S-band. Notwithstanding this, an X-band AESA
radar built to detect a 0.001 m2 cruise missile at 20 NMI will also
detect a 10 m2 aircraft at 200 NMI, making it quite competitive in the
long range surveillance role.
The generational jump we are seeing now in shipboard radars
will be paralleled in stealth shaping techniques. Trialled originally
in the Lockheed Sea Shadow program during the 1980s, stealth techniques
are to be used full scale in the new US Navy DD(X)/CG(X) family of
12,000 tonne class warships. These vessels will have no exposed masts,
a tall faceted superstructure will carry all antennas flush mounted in
the skin panels. The result will be a warship which is much harder to
detect on radar, especially if microwave absorbent or lossy coating
materials are exploited. While absorbers can be used to reduce the
signature of conventional warships, the results cannot compete against
a design shaped for stealth from the outset. Stealth of this quality
must be designed in from the outset, as with combat aircraft, and shape
alone will account for much of the gains seen.

Lockheed's
1980s Sea Shadow technology demonstrator was the
first ever stealth warship. Anecdotes from the period claim it was so
stealthy, it could be detected as a black hole in the ocean wave
clutter background (Lockheed-Martin).

The US Navy's
new 12,000 tonne class Northrop-Grumman DD(X)
destroyers will be the first of a new generation of surface combatants
incorporating a wide range of technological innovations. Two of these
are of particular interest. The first is the integrated dual band
radar suite combining the active phased array X-band SPY-3 MFR and
S-band Volume Search Radars, both sharing a common back end for antenna
control and processing. The SPY-3, also planned for the CG(X) and a
wide range of larger vessels, is designed to defeat saturation missile
attacks. The wave piercing hull shape and superstructure is designed
for stealth from the outset, resulting in a much lower radar signature
than any current warships (US Navy/Northrop-Grumman).

Conclusions
Given the enormous investment of taxpayer's funds about to be
sunk into the Air Warfare Destroyer project, some fundamental questions
must be asked:
We are at the beginning of a major and radical transition
point
in naval surface combatant technologies, a transition which cannot be
crossed by evolutionary modification or upgrades of existing designs,
yet the program implementation as it stands is centred in technologies
many of which date back to the 1970s. Why must the program follow the
current timeline? Why can it not be deferred to encompass designs
exploiting DD(X)/CG(X) generation technologies? With Westralia, Tobruk,
Manoora and Kanimbla coming due for replacement, there is ample work
for the domestic industry regardless of AWD timelines.
Why is the warship to be optimised around providing long range
air defence cover and ballistic missile defence cover, when clearly the
dominant threat to warships, transport shipping and amphibious landings
over coming decades will be in low flying cruise missiles, which the
region is already awash in? Indeed, if the warship is to be effective
at all in its stated primary roles of defending other vessels and
amphibious landing sites, then it must be equipped with an X-band
active phased array in the class of the SPY-3 or APAR systems, designed
from the outset to stop saturation sea skimming missile attacks.
Given the radar horizon constrained low altitude coverage
limitations
of a long range radar on a warship, why is so much investment being put
into a capability with inherent limitations, while only four Wedgetails
are planned, despite these providing the low altitude surveillance
coverage equivalent to dozens of warships each?
There is no doubt that the RAN will need a new class of
surface
combatant to replace the older FFGs, and there is no doubt that this
vessel will need to be highly survivable in the most competitive
maritime warfighting environment worldwide. The current AWD program is
misdirected in its role optimisation, and poorly thought out in its
choice of technologies.
A very good case can be made for the AWD program to be delayed
by at least a half decade to permit the incorporation of modern low
observable hull technology, and the latest X-band active array
technology, preferably in a smaller and more affordable hull. If SEA
4000 materialises in its current form, the RAN will be burdened for the
next three decades with the last of a generation of technologies, with
a design ill adapted to the developing realities of regional maritime
warfare.
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