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Updated: Tue Nov 11 03:38:35 UTC 2008
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The Air Force Association
Threats
to Air Supremacy
Presentation
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Air Power
Australia - Australia's Independent Defence Think Tank
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Air Power Australia NOTAM
16th May,
2008
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| Contacts: |
Peter
Goon
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Carlo
Kopp |
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Mob:
0419-806-476 |
Mob:
0437-478-224 |
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A short time ago, the US Air
Force Association posted a
highly significant assessment of trends in global air combat
capabilities. This is an important statement – it concludes
that United States forces face the imminent threat of losing air
supremacy in
locations that
matter to Australia – on the Pacific rim – which is Australia's
front yard.
Threats
to Air Supremacy:
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The assessment is measured and based on hard data and hard facts.
It is not based on hope, or specious arguments that it does
not
matter how good Russian equipment is, because "we will always out-fly
/ out-operate
them on the day".
The capabilities of modern SAMs to protect airspace and
territory are explored well, although some modern developments such as
networking of VHF AESA radars and emitter locating systems are not
included. These developments only
extend the extant capability of modern SAMs. Some
of the air-to-air missile capabilities are understated – for instance,
the R-77M, the
RVV-AE-PD, the R-37 all have a much longer range than the R-77/AA-12
shown, and the matter of seeker diversity is not addressed.
Also recent Russian developments such as the Irbis E hybrid ESA, the
Zhuk AE and ASE AESA radars are understated. Again, the Air Force Association assessment
underestimates these risks in this area of air
combat.
Notwithstanding, this Air Force
Association argument is exactly aligned
to the arguments which APA and other independent Australian observers
have been putting
to
various forums over the last decade.
Of particular interest is the USAF doctrine of ‘First Look
– First Shot – First Kill’. The Air Force Association now assess
that
this advantage will go to an adversary operating weapons such as the
Su-35BM
armed with longer range missiles such as the R-172 or R-77M and using
DRFM-based
electronic warfare equipment. Australia needs to reconsider the
suitability of
the
F/A-18F and the F-35 JSF, to achieve an air combat
advantage and attain regional air dominance.
The Air Force Association analysis
extends into the realm of the next generation of
the Russian and Chinese fighters – the stealthy PAK-FA and the JF-12 /
J-XX. Given the glacial pace of the F-35 SDD, it is almost
certain that
the
PAK-FA will be on the international market before the F-35 – and at
much
lower cost.
On behalf of Air Power Australia
I am pleased to offer my
congratulations to the Air Force
Association on an
excellent piece of analysis presented at a critical time.
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Air
Power Australia Website - http://www.ausairpower.net/
Air Power Australia Research and
Analysis - http://www.ausairpower.net/research.html
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Artwork, graphic design and text © 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007 Carlo Kopp; Text © 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007 Peter Goon; All
rights reserved. |
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